Former NCIC Commissioner Prof Gitile Naituli has warned that political kingpins remain central to Kenya’s electoral politics, with influential leaders still able to rally large sections of their communities behind them.
Naituli said the strength of a political kingpin should not be measured by whether they control every vote in a community, but by the size and loyalty of the support they can command.
Speaking during an interview with Radio Generation on Friday, the former National Cohesion and Integration Commission (NCIC) commissioner said a leader could qualify as a kingpin even without securing 100 per cent support from their community, giving the Kamba community as an example.
He said a leader commanding between 60 and 80 per cent of a community’s vote could still be regarded as a political kingpin because of the level of influence they exercise.
His remarks come against a long history of ethnic-based political mobilisation in Kenya, where influential politicians have often emerged as the leading political voices of large communities.
The 2019 national census listed the Kikuyu, Luhya, Kalenjin, Luo and Kamba as the country’s five largest ethnic communities. Together, they accounted for more than 31 million people, or about two-thirds of Kenya’s population.
The Kikuyu were the largest community at 8.15 million, followed by the Luhya at 6.82 million, Kalenjin at 6.36 million, Luo at 5.07 million and Kamba at 4.66 million.
The size of these communities has made voting blocs an important factor in presidential elections, with political leaders often seeking alliances that bring together several large communities.
Naituli, however, said political loyalty varies from one community to another and should not be treated as a uniform feature of Kenyan politics.
He argued that the Kikuyu, for instance, have traditionally rallied around a particular political figure at different points rather than remaining permanently tied to one kingpin.
“Now, Kikuyu, I understand it's not really a kingpin. It's just the person that they consolidate around. But for the sake of the argument, let's call him a kingpin,” he said.
Naituli contrasted this with the Luo community, which he said had a political kingpin in the late Raila Odinga, whose influence went beyond individual elections and positions held in government.
Raila’s political career saw him work with different political administrations and leaders, including Daniel arap Moi and Mwai Kibaki. He later became Prime Minister under the 2008 power-sharing government and went on to work politically with Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto.
According to Naituli, such political alliances did not erase Raila’s standing among his supporters because his influence was tied to his ability to mobilise them.
“When Raila was working with Moi, he was basically a good president because he went there with that force of the support. Yes, he did. When he worked in Kibaki, was the prime minister, you understand. So he was not just another small person. When he was a crossover to Uhuru, he was basically a co-president. When he was working with William Ruto, he was a co-president,” he said.
Naituli said there is also a difference between a politician who simply attracts votes and one who has developed deep political influence over their supporters.
He said genuine political leadership can be seen when supporters are willing to go beyond ordinary electoral participation, including making personal sacrifices for the political cause or leader they believe in.
For Naituli, the willingness of followers to act voluntarily and sacrifice for their political leader is one of the clearest signs of lasting political influence.
He said Kenya’s political debate should therefore separate politicians who enjoy temporary electoral backing from leaders whose influence is deeply connected to the political identity, loyalty and mobilisation of their communities.