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In its latest seasonal climate update released on Thursday, the agency said the sea-surface temperature anomaly in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific could reach about 3.7°C above normal between October and December. This would surpass the previous record of 2.6°C recorded between November 2015 and January 2016.
According to the PS, parents should also take extra care to keep children away from flooded sections, warning that floodwater can pose serious dangers even when it does not appear threatening.
The department's latest outlook comes as meteorologists assess the role of ocean temperatures in determining the distribution and intensity of rainfall expected during the October-December period.
In a statement on Monday, KHRC demanded that the government put human rights at the centre of preparations and interventions for the El Niño rains expected between late September and December this year.
In a food safety advisory issued on Monday, the ministry said experience from previous El Niño seasons showed that heavy rains, flooding and high humidity could lead to a sharp rise in illnesses such as cholera, typhoid and aflatoxin poisoning.
The Kenya Red Cross Society says heavy rains could increase the risk of flooding, landslides and other weather-related disasters in the region.
As El Niño rains approach, a Senate committee has warned that Malindi’s lack of a sewer system and weak drainage could heighten sanitation-related health risks, and has ordered Kilifi County to urgently address sewerage and drainage infrastructure.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said in its September 10, 2026 assessment that there is a greater than 90 per cent chance of a very strong El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter of 2026-27
The Governor issued the directive on Thursday during a meeting at Barabara Plaza in Nairobi attended by KURA Director-General Eng. Silas Kinoti, county and KURA engineers and contractors.
In a public notice issued on Wednesday, the authority urged the public to “avoid venturing into sea during periods of adverse weather and rough sea conditions”.
The preparedness programme is being coordinated by Governor Sakaja and brings together the Nairobi County Government, national agencies and humanitarian organisations involved in roads, drainage and emergency response.
The Deputy President specifically cautioned the public against entering flooded areas or going near rivers when movement restrictions are issued.