Kenya’s election bill could rise again in 2027, with a new study linking the high cost of running polls to presidential incumbency, repeated purchase of election equipment and deep mistrust of the electoral process.
The study, Cost of Elections in Kenya 2026, shows that elections have tended to become more expensive when a sitting president is defending the office, raising concern that the country could once again face a heavy bill in the 2027 General Election.
President William Ruto will be seeking a second term in 2027, a situation the report says is likely to mirror the spending pattern witnessed in previous elections involving incumbents.
The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) had put forward a budget of Sh61.7 billion for the 2027 elections. Parliament later cut the allocation to Sh57.3 billion.
The report compares the expected spending with previous elections and finds a clear difference in the amount spent per registered voter.
In 2017, when then-President Uhuru Kenyatta was seeking another term, the electoral agency spent about Sh65 billion, translating to approximately Sh2,124 for every registered voter.
The figure was lower in 2022, when the country was choosing a successor rather than voting on whether to retain an incumbent. IEBC spent a cumulative Sh47 billion, with the cost per registered voter standing at about Sh1,649.
The 2017 expenditure was partly linked to the purchase of Kenya Integrated Election Management System (KIEMS) kits, which the commission treated as a one-off expense. The repeat presidential election held later that year also added to the cost.
The pattern goes further back.
IEBC records show that the 2002 election cost Sh4.57 billion. The amount increased to Sh19.4 billion in 2007, when then-President Mwai Kibaki was seeking a second term.
The report says the figures point to a recurring problem in Kenya’s election planning, where major purchases are made before each election instead of building on equipment and systems already acquired in previous polls.
"The data suggests that Kenya's electoral system remains locked into a high-cost equilibrium in which each election triggers a new round of major procurement rather than building on durable, depreciated infrastructure," the report states.
The cost per voter in Kenya is also far above the global level. The study estimates the international average at roughly Sh645 for each registered voter, meaning Kenya spends about three to four times that amount.
The researchers warn that the gap could remain wide unless changes are made to how elections are planned and managed.
"It is instructive to note that over the period reviewed for this report, the highest cost of electoral processes occurred in 2017, with a similar scenario projected in 2027. This would tend to suggest that electoral costs are highest when an incumbent is seeking re-election, rather than when a constitutionally mandated handover is in the offing," the report states.
Apart from procurement, the study identifies repeated changes in election technology as another source of pressure on the IEBC budget. It also points to weak asset amortisation and limited incentives for the commission to reduce its expenditure.
The report, however, says the problem is not purely financial or logistical. It links a large part of the election bill to the lack of confidence among political parties and voters in electoral institutions.
Kenyan elections have for years been followed by claims of rigging and manipulation, especially from opposition candidates who have accused electoral bodies of favouring incumbents.
These disputes have often moved from political rallies and public debate to the courts, with several presidential election results ending up before the Supreme Court.
The late former Prime Minister Raila Odinga challenged the results of the 2013, 2017 and 2022 presidential elections. His petitions over the 2013 and 2022 results were dismissed.
In 2017, however, the Supreme Court, then led by Chief Justice David Maraga, cancelled Kenyatta’s re-election and directed that a fresh presidential election be held.
The study says this cycle of mistrust has forced electoral institutions to spend more money on measures meant to convince political parties and voters that the process is credible.
"Kenya's election bill is inflated not only by logistics and technology, but by deficits of trust in institutions. When parties and citizens fear rigging or biased administration, the system responds with costly assurances heavier securitisation, more layers of technology, parallel results channels and high-volume litigation," it states.
The report says reducing election expenditure will therefore require more than cutting individual budget items. It calls for greater confidence in electoral institutions and urges political leaders to accept the electoral process even when the outcome is not in their favour.
The study was undertaken under the Promoting Inclusive Electoral Reforms in Kenya programme. It was funded by the Netherlands Institute for Multiparty Democracy and prepared by Prof Karuti Kanyinga and Tom Mboya on behalf of South Consulting Africa Limited.