Nearly 8.3 million refugees, forcibly displaced and stateless people could lose access to essential protection and support as deep cuts in humanitarian funding weaken services meant to keep vulnerable populations safe, the UN refugee agency UNHCR has warned.
In its latest report, Protection Eroded: The Human Cost of Underfunding, released on September 29, UNHCR said funding available for its work had dropped from $5.178 billion in 2024 to $3.932 billion in 2025 even as humanitarian needs remained high.
The agency said the situation had worsened in 2026, with only 32 per cent of the $8.5 billion needed for its operations received by July.
UNHCR's 2026 Global Appeal requires $8.505 billion to support its work in 128 countries and territories. The agency estimates that the number of people who could be forcibly displaced or stateless may reach 136 million by the end of the year.
The warning comes as millions continue to depend on humanitarian services despite a fall in the overall number of forcibly displaced people.
According to UNHCR's latest Global Trends data, 117.8 million people were forcibly displaced at the end of 2025, down from 123.2 million in 2024.
It was the first decline recorded in a decade and was partly linked to more refugees and internally displaced people returning to their homes.
However, UNHCR said the reduction does not mean the need for protection and assistance has disappeared.
The agency recorded 41.6 million refugees worldwide at the end of 2025, while 68.7 million people were internally displaced.
Funding shortages are already affecting basic services, including refugee registration, child protection, safe houses and assistance for survivors of gender-based violence.
In Afghanistan, more than one million people have returned in 2026 alone, according to UNHCR. However, the cash grant given to people returning to the country has been reduced from $375 per person to $170 per household.
Support for reintegration has also dropped sharply, with grants reaching only 175 households so far in 2026, compared with 5,300 households in 2024.
The situation is also putting refugees in Chad at risk, with 319,000 people facing delays in registration. UNHCR warned that lack of documentation could increase their exposure to detention.
Up to 200,000 women and girls in Chad could also lose access to safe spaces, while about 233,000 children are at risk of losing child protection services.
Ethiopia has recorded similar cuts, with the number of safe houses available to survivors of gender-based violence falling from 29 to 13 in one year.
Child protection coverage in some areas has also dropped by as much as 85 per cent.
In Sudan, more than 50,000 survivors of sexual violence in Darfur and Kordofan could lose access to post-rape care as funding pressures continue.
UNHCR Director of External Relations Dominique Hyde warned that reducing protection services could leave displaced people exposed to the same threats that forced them to flee their homes.
“When registration stops, safe houses close or child protection services disappear, the very risks that people fled – violence, exploitation and abuse – reappear.”
The agency said protection programmes cannot be reduced indefinitely without affecting the systems used to identify people at risk and respond to their needs.
“Below a certain threshold the system doesn’t shrink, it fails.”
UNHCR has already taken steps to reduce spending because of the financial pressure. The agency cut its workforce by a third in 2025 and closed offices in 140 locations.
It also said funding tied to specific projects had increased sharply, rising from 19 per cent of its funding in 2022 to 51 per cent in 2026.
According to UNHCR, such funding restrictions make it harder to move money and expertise quickly when emergencies arise or needs change.
“Flexible funding helps us move the right expertise and funds to where they are needed the most,” Hyde said, warning that protection cannot be “reduced indefinitely without systems collapsing”.
The burden of supporting displaced populations continues to fall heavily on poorer countries.
At the end of 2025, 68 per cent of refugees and other people in need of international protection were hosted by low- and middle-income countries.
UNHCR data also showed that 65 per cent of refugees and other people requiring international protection lived in countries neighbouring their countries of origin.
The agency is calling on donors and partners to provide urgent financial support and increase flexible funding.
UNHCR warned that further reductions could weaken protection systems that millions of people depend on after being forced from their homes by conflict, persecution and violence.