KANU spokesperson and Nairobi gubernatorial aspirant Tony Gachoka says Kenya’s constitutional thresholds for electing a president will make coalition-building a central feature of political strategy ahead of the 2027 General Election.
Speaking during an interview on Radio Generation, Gachoka said the popularity of an individual politician or political party may not be sufficient to secure the presidency because candidates must meet two separate constitutional requirements.
Under Article 138 of the Constitution, a presidential candidate must receive more than half of all votes cast and at least 25 per cent of the votes cast in each of more than half of Kenya’s counties.
If no candidate meets those requirements, the Constitution provides for a fresh election within 30 days involving the leading candidates.
With Kenya having 47 counties, the county requirement translates to at least 24 counties.
Gachoka said the constitutional framework makes geographical distribution of support an important consideration for presidential contenders and political parties seeking to build viable national alliances.
“Now, where you are in the 2027 election for younger audiences is that yes, you may have your most popular politician being a party leader in a certain political outfit, but then now the skill of building coalitions will be determinant of the success of that particular individual in the national arena, simply because of the threshold,” he said on Friday.
The 2022 presidential election provides a recent illustration of the two-part requirement.
According to results declared by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC), William Ruto received 7,176,141 votes, representing 50.49 per cent, while Raila Odinga received 6,942,930 votes, or 48.85 per cent.
Ruto reached the 25 per cent threshold in 39 of the 47 counties, while Odinga attained it in 34 counties.
The figures meant Ruto cleared both constitutional thresholds in the first round.
Gachoka linked the current emphasis on coalition-building to Kenya's history of political alliances and the debates that accompanied the transition to multi-party politics in the 1990s.
“There used to be the clarion call in the 90s of no reform, no elections, and this was actually the agitation towards moving Kenya into a multi-party democratic state, and part of that debate was not just having multi-party elections, but the threshold to win such elections.”
He said the county requirement adds a geographical dimension to the national vote threshold, making alliances an important part of presidential campaign planning.
“You've got the issue of the numerical number, 50+1. Yes. But then you have the devolution number. Yeah. The constitutional threshold, which will include the counties. Now that has forced Kenya into a season of coalitions.”
The 2022 figures show how closely the national threshold can be contested. The margin between Ruto and Odinga was 233,211 votes, with Ruto's 50.49 per cent just above the constitutional requirement.
KANU Spokesperson maintained that the constitutional requirements have influenced the evolution of political formations over successive elections.
He cited Raila Odinga's movement through different political alliances, including NASA and Azimio, as examples of efforts to consolidate support across different parts of the country.
“Raila Odinga's supporters at the time, who are part of the Kibaki coalition, also mitigated that by insisting that you must also garner 25% in half the counties.”
As parties and political figures position themselves for 2027, Gachoka explained that several smaller coalitions could emerge before broader alliances are formed.
“So we're just in the initial stages of these coalitions. Imagine, because it looks like we shall have very many mini coalitions before we have one major coalition.”
He further stressed that the process will therefore involve negotiations between political parties and leaders seeking to combine their support bases across counties.
For presidential candidates, the constitutional formula means national vote totals and county-level performance are both relevant to the first-round outcome.
The IEBC itself identifies the 50 per cent plus one vote and 25 per cent in a majority of counties as the constitutional thresholds that must be confirmed before presidential results are declared.
Gachoka's remarks come as political parties and leaders begin positioning themselves ahead of the 2027 election, with coalition-building emerging as a significant part of the preparations for the presidential contest.