Hard truths. Bold Insights. Real talk.
In a statement released on Tuesday, the party said warnings issued by the Kenya Meteorological Department, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development's Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) point to what could become the country's most severe El Niño season in 150 years.
According to ICPAC, there is a 45 per cent chance of wetter-than-normal rainfall across much of Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania, central and western Kenya, Ethiopia, South Sudan, northern Somalia, and Djibouti.
Looking ahead, January to March 2026 forecasts predict that drier-than-usual conditions will persist in regions not currently in dry season, including Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, and Burundi. ICPAC warns that prolonged dryness could further affect food production, livestock, water supplies, and health outcomes.
The warning follows forecasts from the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), which projects a high chance of below-normal rainfall for October–December 2025 in eastern Kenya, southern Ethiopia, parts of Somalia, and northern Tanzania. ICPAC notes that this period is a key rainfall season, accounting for up to 70 percent of annual precipitation in some parts of the Horn of Africa.
The latest outlook from the Igad Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) shows that much of Eastern and Northern Kenya is likely to be hotter and drier than normal.