The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that El Niño is expected to intensify into a very strong event in the coming months, raising the risk of floods, drought and extreme heat across many parts of the world.
WMO forecasts show an exceptionally high likelihood of nearly 100% that the weather phenomenon will persist through February 2027, as exceptionally warm conditions in the tropical Pacific continue to fuel its development.
In an update issued on Thursday, the agency said El Niño is expected to reach very strong intensity before peaking towards the end of 2026, with its climate impacts likely to continue well into 2027.
“El Niño is being supersized before our eyes. The science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres said.
“Sea surface temperatures are rising, temperatures keep climbing, and the world is in the danger zone of extreme weather,” he added.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said communities and economies were already experiencing disruption from extreme weather associated with El Niño.
“El Niño in Spanish means boy child – but it has the potential to deliver a massive blow to communities and economies across the world,” she said.“We are already seeing disruption and devastation from droughts and floods and we expect these impacts to increase as El Niño intensifies.”
The WMO said sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, the region at the heart of El Niño, were already well above average and continuing to rise.
The Niño 3.4 index, which measures sea surface temperature anomalies in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific, rose from an average of 1.5°C above normal between May and July 2026 to 2°C above normal in July.
Weekly values increased further between late July and mid-August, reaching about 2.2°C to 2.6°C above average.
The agency also reported exceptionally warm conditions below the ocean surface, with temperatures in some areas more than 8°C above average during July and early August.
WMO said a very strong El Niño can significantly alter rainfall, temperatures and atmospheric circulation in different parts of the world, but warned that the strength of the event alone does not determine how severe the impacts will be in individual countries.
For September to November 2026, WMO forecasts indicate an increased likelihood of above-normal temperatures across almost all land areas, alongside significant changes in rainfall patterns.
A positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole is also expected to develop during the period, while the equatorial Atlantic is forecast to remain generally warm.
Saulo said the scale of the expected event required stronger preparedness and early-warning measures.
“This exceptional El Niño demands exceptional preparation and response,” she said.“WMO is committed to working closely with partners across the United Nations and humanitarian system to provide the climate intelligence and insights needed to support disaster management and climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, health, energy and water resources.”
The WMO said national meteorological and hydrological services would continue monitoring the event and provide locally relevant warnings as conditions evolve.
It stressed that El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon and is not caused by climate change.