The contest to succeed UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres is gaining shape as the Security Council carries out another secret assessment of the candidates seeking to take over the top UN position when his term comes to an end.
The 15-member Council met on Friday for a second informal straw poll, giving members another opportunity to indicate which contenders they support, oppose or have no clear position on.
Costa Rica's Rebeca Grynspan remains one of the leading names in the race after receiving the strongest backing during the first informal vote conducted last month.
The first poll was held privately, with Council members casting their ballots without revealing their individual positions.
Grynspan is facing competition from several other prominent candidates, including Argentina's Rafael Grossi, who currently leads the UN nuclear watchdog.
Chile's former president Michelle Bachelet is also in the race, alongside Ecuador's Maria Fernanda Espinosa, Guyana's Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett, Uganda's Olara Otunnu and Senegal's Macky Sall.
The field has also expanded since the first vote, with Ecuador's Ivonne A-Baki announcing her bid to replace Guterres, whose second five-year term expires on December 31, 2026.
Denmark's UN ambassador Christina Lassen, whose country is currently holding the rotating presidency of the Security Council, said candidates would receive their results through the permanent representatives of the countries that nominated them.
"The candidates will be informed of the results through the respective permanent representatives of nominating member states... That's all I have to say today," Lassen said.
She added that Council members were discussing when to conduct another straw poll as the selection process continues.
The latest vote did not produce an immediate agreement on who should take over from Guterres.
"It's too early to have a consensus," said council-member Democratic Republic of Congo's ambassador Zenon Ngay Mukongo after the vote.
The selection process could continue for several weeks, with the five permanent members of the Council likely to play a key role in determining the eventual nominee.
The permanent members are Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States. Each has veto powers that can block a candidate even if that person secures enough support from the wider Council.
International Crisis Group's Daniel Forti had warned before Friday's vote that the five powerful countries could wait before showing their preferred candidates.
He also said the list of contenders could still change as the process moves forward.
Russia's ambassador to the UN, Vassily Nebenzia, similarly left open the possibility that fresh names could enter the contest if the current candidates fail to attract enough support.
"If, for example -- I'm speculating now -- if there is a deadlock on any of the candidates we are seeing today, if nobody... flies, then I think that we may see other candidates as well," Nebenzia said.
Candidates face key hurdle
Securing enough votes is only one part of the process facing those competing for the UN's top job.
A candidate must receive at least nine votes from the 15-member Security Council to advance. They must also avoid being blocked by any of the five permanent members.
Once the Council agrees on a nominee, the name is forwarded to the General Assembly, which brings together all UN member states, for confirmation.
The straw poll system dates back to the early 1980s, when the Council faced a deadlock over two candidates who had been stopped by vetoes.
The process has remained in use in different forms despite concerns from some countries over the secretive nature of the selection exercise.
Forti said the latest vote could force some candidates to reconsider their campaigns if they discover they have little support within the Council.
"There is a good chance that some nominees realize after (Friday's) vote that their campaigns have reached the end of the road," Forti added.
The informal ballot gives Council members three choices when assessing each candidate: "encourage," "discourage," or "no opinion."
Candidates who receive weak support can decide to withdraw from the contest, although there is no requirement for them to do so.
The voting system also changes as the process advances.
During the opening rounds, all Council members use ballots of the same colour. Later, after an unspecified number of votes, the five permanent members will use ballots of a different colour.
The change is designed to show whether a candidate may face a veto without revealing which permanent member has rejected that candidate.
Region expected to play a role
The race is also influenced by the long-standing UN practice of rotating the secretary-general position among different regions.
Based on that tradition, Latin America is expected to have a strong claim to the position this time.
Several of the candidates are from Latin America, including Grynspan, Grossi, Bachelet, Espinosa and A-Baki.
Sall and Otunnu are the two candidates from Africa.
The second straw poll therefore marks another step in a process that is still far from settled, with the Council yet to agree on a single name.
For now, Grynspan remains among the strongest contenders after the first round, while the addition of new candidates and the possibility of further names entering the race means the final outcome remains open.
The Council is expected to determine the timing of its next informal vote as consultations continue over who should become the next UN secretary-general.