Ethiopia’s top military commander has warned that a new alliance of armed and political groups could deepen the country’s security crisis, accusing foreign powers of funding, supplying and directing forces opposed to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government.
ENDF Chief of General Staff Field Marshal Birhanu Jula said the latest coalition was part of a wider effort to weaken Ethiopia from within after opponents failed to confront the country directly.
Speaking through the Ethiopian Army’s media outlet, Birhanu said Ethiopia’s adversaries had changed their approach, turning to financial support and intelligence operations to fuel internal conflict and interfere with the country’s development.
“They shifted their strategy. They changed tactics to invest money and deploy intelligence assets to cause internal conflict, loss of peace, hindrance to development, and obstruction of natural resource utilisation,” he said.
His comments followed the announcement by seven Ethiopian armed and political groups of the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival.
The alliance brings together the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), Amhara Fano National Movement, Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) and other regional forces.
The groups have said they want to remove Abiy’s government and put in place an inclusive transitional government.
Birhanu said the alliance, which he called “Tsimdo”, was not an entirely new force but a return of an earlier political and military arrangement under a different name and structure.
“The coalition (‘Tsimdo’) returned under a modified appearance, but it is the same entity as before,” he said. “Its master is our historical enemy, its manager is our contemporary enemy, and its operatives are our own people.”
The army chief singled out Eritrea, referring to it as “Shaebia”, and alleged that it serves as a channel between foreign powers and armed groups operating in Ethiopia.
He said the TPLF and Eritrea lacked the ability to take on the federal government without outside assistance, naming Sudan, Egypt and other powers among those he claimed were providing support.
“Neither Shaebia nor the TPLF can achieve anything alone – even if combined – unless pushed, supported, and supplied by Sudan, Egypt, and powers beyond,” Birhanu said.
Eritrea has denied previous accusations from the Ethiopian government and military that it supports armed groups inside Ethiopia.
Birhanu said the formation of the alliance was intended to bring together several groups whose individual military capabilities would not be enough to pose a major challenge to the federal government.
“A country as vast as Ethiopia cannot be overwhelmed by an isolated move from the TPLF, OLA, extremist Fano, or Shaebia acting alone,” he said.
He drew parallels between the present alliance and the network of political and armed groups that existed before the fall of the Derg government in 1991.
According to Birhanu, the TPLF historically relied on partnerships with other groups to increase its military and political strength.
He said the organisation was now seeking fresh alliances in Amhara and Oromia because it could not operate effectively on its own.
The military chief described the latest coalition as an attempt to rebuild the kind of political and military structure associated with the former Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF).
“Because it cannot, it requires someone else to lean on, hide behind, receive support from, or deploy as proxies,” he said.
The accusations come at a time when fighting has resumed in northern Ethiopia, with tensions between Tigrayan forces and federal and allied forces increasing in recent days.
The two sides have exchanged accusations over who is responsible for the renewed hostilities.
The emergence of the wider alliance has also added a national political and military dimension to the latest tensions, bringing together groups from different parts of Ethiopia.
Birhanu claimed that the TPLF had been weakened both politically and militarily and warned that further attempts to provoke conflict could lead to severe consequences for Tigray.
“The TPLF is crippled and currently flailing merely to avoid complete collapse,” he said. “Should it attempt further provocation, it will face destruction.”
He said the federal government was deliberately holding back because another major conflict would have serious consequences for civilians in Tigray, which was already devastated by the 2020–2022 war.
“Tigray lacks the capacity and endurance to bear another war, and the youth they have mobilised should not be needlessly sacrificed unless necessary,” Birhanu said.
The ENDF chief also outlined the military’s efforts since the 2018 political transition, saying the government had combined security operations with a programme to modernise the armed forces.
He said the objective was to develop a force capable of dealing with conventional and unconventional threats while reducing dependence on foreign weapons and military equipment.
“We have pursued two primary missions,” Birhanu said. “The first was safeguarding national peace and security – responding to force with force while resolving peaceful matters through dialogue. The second was constructing a modern army capable of creating strong deterrence to secure the nation’s future.”
He said Ethiopia had also increased domestic defence production and upgraded its Air Force.
The military has further invested in digital capabilities covering reconnaissance, targeting and intelligence, according to Birhanu.
The latest developments come as Ethiopia deals with insecurity in Tigray, Amhara and Oromia, alongside tensions with Eritrea and the wider regional effects of the war in Sudan.
Despite the creation of the new alliance, Birhanu questioned whether its members could operate effectively as one force.
He cited differences in their political positions, ideologies and territorial interests as potential obstacles to coordination and joint military operations.
“They are plagued by internal conflict and cannot coordinate, integrate forces, and operate as a unified entity,” he said.