The proposed Dangote refinery in Lamu could trigger a wider economic transformation across Kenya by creating new opportunities in oil processing, transport, logistics, manufacturing and infrastructure, urban planner and specialist Patrick Adolwa has said.
Adolwa said the expected investment was already shaping development plans in Lamu, with infrastructure projects and businesses preparing for increased activity around the planned refinery.
Speaking to Radio Generation on Thursday, he said the impact of the project should not be measured only by the number of people who will work directly at the refinery, but also by the businesses and industries expected to grow around it.
“The mere prospect of the Dangote refinery coming to Lamu is already influencing development in the area. Even the airport is being expanded to accommodate larger aircraft in anticipation of increased activity once the refinery is established,” Adolwa said.
The proposed refinery is expected to have the capacity to process 700,000 barrels of crude oil a day, which would make it the largest refinery in East Africa once completed.
Its estimated cost has recently been put at between $15 billion (Sh1.9 trillion) and $20 billion (Sh2.6 trillion), making it one of the largest planned investments in Kenya.
Preliminary activities, including site selection, soil testing, engineering and design, have already started. Deputy President Kithure Kindiki said on September 22 that President William Ruto would lead the groundbreaking ceremony on Wednesday, September 30, 2026.
Construction is expected to take up to three years.
Adolwa said the size of the planned facility meant its economic effects would spread well beyond the refinery itself, creating demand for services, workers and businesses along the wider oil and transport chain.
“We talked about the Dangote refinery bringing more than 30,000 employees to that factory. I think, if I can remember the figure, but that is just direct employment to the factory itself, to the oil refinery itself,” he stated.
President William Ruto gave a higher estimate in July, saying the refinery could create about 60,000 jobs. The government has presented the investment as a regional project that would serve Kenya and other East African markets.
According to Adolwa, opportunities would emerge in petroleum distribution, port operations, pipeline development and oil logistics, while the movement, storage and export of petroleum products would create further demand for workers and businesses.
The project could also have an impact beyond Kenya, particularly through links with crude oil producers and petroleum markets in neighbouring countries.
One of the key issues, however, is where the refinery will obtain enough crude oil to operate at its planned capacity.
Reuters has reported that Kenya does not currently have commercial-scale crude production, while potential regional suppliers such as Uganda and South Sudan face infrastructure and geopolitical challenges. This could mean the refinery relies on imported crude, especially during its early years.
Adolwa said the Lamu Port-South Sudan-Ethiopia Transport corridor would therefore play an important role in supporting the refinery and linking it to regional markets and possible sources of crude.
The refinery is also expected to support wider industrial development in Lamu, with plans for energy, manufacturing, storage and logistics facilities around the project.
The government has also discussed plans for a 1,000-megawatt power plant and a special economic zone as part of the wider development expected around the refinery.
Adolwa said Kenya would need to prepare for the investment by mobilising infrastructure financing and ensuring communities in Lamu have the skills needed to take part in the opportunities that will arise.
“If somebody is bringing in that amount of investment and you’re not prepared for it, what do you do? Because if you do not do it, then it will be another 100 years before you get an investment of that magnitude on your lap. So it’s an opportunity. You must do everything to make sure that it does not escape you.”
He acknowledged that Lamu does not have enough specialised workers to meet all the refinery's requirements, but said residents could benefit if they are trained and equipped with the necessary skills before the project becomes fully operational.
The urban specialist also referred to Kenya's former refinery operations in Mombasa as an example of how a major industrial facility can support economic activity beyond its main operations.
He said the proposed Lamu refinery should be viewed as part of a wider effort to position Kenya as a regional centre for trade, services and industry rather than simply as an oil-processing project.
“Kenya just needs to position itself as a hub. We don’t need to have oil. We just need to be smart enough to have the facilities that people need when they have certain resources, whether it is an airport, whether it is an oil refinery, whether it is a university education, and so on and so forth,” he said.
Dangote Industries has offered East African countries a combined 30 per cent stake in the refinery and associated project, with Kenya being offered a 10 per cent stake valued at about $500 million.
Once completed, the refinery is expected to supply refined petroleum products to Kenya and neighbouring countries. The project is also expected to reduce reliance on imported fuel while giving Lamu a larger role in petroleum processing, storage and logistics across East Africa.