More than a decade after Burundi was plunged into political turmoil over President Pierre Nkurunziza’s bid for a third term, the country is still struggling with the fallout, with the crisis having shifted from political violence and displacement to a wider economic hardship, according to Burundian journalist and writer Armel Gilbert Bukeyeneza.
Bukeyeneza says the problems that emerged in 2015 have not been fully resolved and continue to affect ordinary Burundians, including those who have been forced to leave the country in search of safety and better economic opportunities.
Speaking during a Radio Generation interview on Wednesday, Bukeyeneza linked the crisis to Nkurunziza’s decision to seek another term in office, despite opposition from critics who argued that the move went against constitutional term limits and the 2000 Arusha Peace and Reconciliation Agreement.
The Arusha agreement played a key role in ending Burundi’s civil war, which ran from 1993 to 2005 and claimed more than 300,000 lives. It established power-sharing arrangements and paved the way for elections in 2005 and 2010.
However, tensions rose sharply in April 2015 when Nkurunziza announced his intention to seek a third term. The decision sparked protests, followed by a failed coup attempt in May, violence and a growing confrontation between the government and opposition groups.
The United Nations said the dispute centred on the interpretation of Burundi’s Constitution and the Arusha Agreement, particularly provisions on presidential term limits.
Nkurunziza went on to win the July 2015 election and was sworn in for another term in August, despite international concerns over the credibility and inclusiveness of the poll. The UN later called for inclusive political dialogue to help address the divisions that had deepened in the country.
For Bukeyeneza, the decision was especially painful because it came at a time when many Burundians believed the country had finally moved beyond years of conflict and was entering a period of peace and hope.
“In 2015, then-President Pierre Nkurunziza decided to seek a third term despite constitutional provisions and the peace agreement that had been signed earlier. People rejected the move because, after 10 years of civil war, there was a sense of relief and renewed hope for the country’s future,” he said.
The unrest soon became a major humanitarian crisis, forcing hundreds of thousands of Burundians to flee across the country's borders. UNHCR reported that nearly 260,000 people had left Burundi by April 2016.
Refugees reported killings, torture, sexual violence, arbitrary detention, intimidation, forced recruitment and extortion during the crisis.
By September 2016, the number of Burundians who had fled had risen above 300,000. Tanzania, Rwanda, Uganda and the Democratic Republic of Congo became the main host countries, putting added pressure on communities and humanitarian organisations supporting the refugees.
The political crisis also damaged economic progress made after the civil war. World Bank assessments showed that Burundi’s economy contracted sharply in 2015 as unrest disrupted businesses, investment and other economic activity.
Real GDP fell by 3.9 per cent in 2015, while the fiscal deficit remained above five per cent of GDP in 2016. The World Bank also associated the crisis with a decline in external support and worsening living conditions.
Bukeyeneza, who was working as a journalist for international media during the unrest, says reporting on the violence increasingly put journalists at risk.
“When you are reporting on a daily basis on people being killed, on a political crisis, you become a target. That is how I ended up at some point saying, yeah, I have to leave,” he said.
He later left Burundi for Uganda before settling in Kenya in 2017.
According to Bukeyeneza, the effects of the 2015 crisis cannot be measured only by the political violence that followed Nkurunziza’s third-term bid. He says the instability gradually took on an economic dimension, leaving the wider crisis unresolved.
“Only that at some points the political crisis got transformed into an economic crisis, but the crisis remains. It has not ended,” he said.
UNHCR’s latest figures show that 153,879 Burundian refugees were covered under the Burundi Regional Refugee Response Plan as of July 31, 2026. The figure includes people who fled the country from April 2015, as well as some refugees who had sought asylum in the region before the crisis.
The regional figure does not include about 16,000 Burundian refugees and asylum seekers supported through Kenya’s country-level programme. It also excludes Burundian refugees in Mozambique, Malawi, South Africa and Zambia.
A further 42,200 long-term Burundian refugees in Tanzania are not included because they no longer receive support under the regional response.
More than 10 years after the political crisis erupted, Burundi continues to deal with the effects of displacement, political instability and economic hardship, with thousands of its citizens still living outside the country as they seek safety and opportunities.