Global oil markets are facing fresh pressure as the six-month-old war involving the United States, Israel and Iran disrupts major energy routes and infrastructure, with Thirty Three Energy founder and Chief Executive Officer Mohamud Salat warning that a further escalation could push crude prices higher and add to economic pressure worldwide.
The conflict, which began on February 28, 2026, has grown beyond direct fighting between the United States and Iran, with Iran-linked Houthi forces in Yemen and other armed groups also becoming involved in attacks affecting energy facilities and shipping routes.
The disruption has pushed oil prices above $100 a barrel as traders remain concerned about crude supplies moving through the Strait of Hormuz and other export routes.
Speaking during a Radio Generation interview on Wednesday, Salat said the Strait of Hormuz remains a key route for the world's oil supplies, with about 20 million barrels of oil passing through it each day.
The US Energy Information Administration estimates that an average of 20.9 million barrels per day moved through the Strait of Hormuz in the first half of 2025. That represented about 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption and nearly a quarter of oil traded by sea worldwide.
With the strait facing disruption, Salat said alternative routes have become more important, including Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, which was designed to move crude away from the Gulf and reduce reliance on Hormuz.
“Saudi Arabia had the East-West pipeline, where now products could move about four to five million barrels per day from the west coast to the east so that they can access the Mediterranean and maybe export it via the Red Sea or Suez Canal,” Salat said.
The pipeline has since been hit and shut down following drone attacks that Saudi Arabia has attributed to militants operating from Iraq. Its closure has taken away one of the major routes available for moving Saudi oil without passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Recent market reports indicate that the pipeline has the capacity to carry up to seven million barrels per day, although Salat placed the operational capacity relevant to the current disruption at about five million barrels per day. Its shutdown has added to concerns about Saudi Arabia's ability to transport crude to international markets while Hormuz remains disrupted.
Salat said the attack came at a difficult time because Saudi Arabia's oil output had already dropped as a result of the wider disruption.
“Saudi Arabia is the number one oil exporter. They do about 10 million barrels, 10 to 11 million barrels. Now, because of the Hormuz closure and everything, they do about six million. And this is before the pipeline is destroyed,” he stated.
The supply concerns have already been reflected in crude prices, with Brent rising above $100 a barrel in September. The benchmark reached $108.75 on Wednesday after fresh concerns over the Saudi pipeline and threats to shipping in the Red Sea.
Earlier in September, Brent had settled at $94.65 following renewed fighting between the United States and Iran. This was still above the prices below $100 recorded when markets were expecting a reduction in hostilities.
Salat said Brent had been trading at around $80 a barrel before the war but moved above $100 as the conflict became more intense.
The impact of the disruption is not limited to oil-producing countries. The International Monetary Fund says higher energy prices can raise production and transport costs, reduce consumers' purchasing power and put pressure on financial conditions.
The IMF expects the global economy to grow by 3% in 2026, while headline inflation is projected at 4.7%.
It has also warned that a longer period of energy disruption could have a bigger effect on the world economy. Under a scenario where oil prices average about $110 a barrel, global growth could fall to 2.6%, while inflation could rise to 5.4%.
Kenya is among the oil-importing economies exposed to the impact of higher international crude prices. An increase in global oil costs can feed into transport, electricity generation, manufacturing and the prices of imported goods.
The latest fuel prices set by the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority for Nairobi from September 15 to October 14 place petrol at Sh214.03 per litre, diesel at Sh217.86 and kerosene at Sh191.38.
Salat warned that the situation could become more difficult if attacks spread to other major routes, including the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Red Sea.
He described the developments as an “escalation ladder”, with disruption moving from the Strait of Hormuz to oil pipelines and potentially extending to other important shipping corridors.
The 33E chief executive also said damage to alternative oil infrastructure could create another problem, as crude available for export may still struggle to reach international buyers if key transport routes remain blocked.
The EIA says pipelines in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Iran provide alternative routes around the Strait of Hormuz. However, their combined capacity can only handle part of the volumes that normally pass through the waterway.
The pressure is also being felt in global oil stocks. The EIA estimates that worldwide oil inventories have fallen by about 400 million barrels this year and expects major production disruptions in the Middle East to continue through the end of 2026.
For Kenya, a prolonged disruption in the global oil market could therefore translate into higher fuel costs for households and businesses while adding further pressure to prices across the wider economy.